Test Scores Better Predict Course Placement and College Success
Some first-year college students need to take remedial or developmental courses to be successful. Historically, high school grades predicted the need for developmental course placement. However, a new May 2024 research study by the ACT® organization shows that test scores determine placement for remedial courses more accurately than high school grades. This should improve sophomore retention and college success.
The COVID-19 pandemic caused extensive learning losses. Efforts to keep students on the path to graduation and college led to high school grade inflation. Average high school GPAs increased from 3.17 in 2010 to 3.36 in 2021, with average grades increasing most from 2016 to 2021. Additionally, many colleges eager to keep increasing their freshman class sizes also adopted less stringent test-optional college readiness requirements.
A 2025 study analyzing data from Dartmouth found that less-advantaged students boosted their chances of admission when submitting 1420+ SAT® scores. These included students who were first-gen, below-median incomes, high schools with high Challenge Index rankings. The study further found that SAT® scores, rather than high school GPAs, more closely correlated to freshman college GPAs. The difference was notable: 22% for scores compared to only 9% for GPAs.
Opportunity Insights' research in January 2024 addressed the value of test scores in college admissions. Their study found that students with higher SAT® /ACT® scores are more likely to have higher college GPAs. They also found that students from different socioeconomic levels with comparable test scores shared similar college grades.
Further, multiple selective universities—including MIT, Stanford, and Yale—conducted internal research with similar conclusions. They all found that test scores correlate with college GPAs. “Standardized test scores are a much better predictor of academic success than high school grades,” wrote Christina Paxson, the president of Brown University. Also, a 2020 study by the University of California System found that standardized test scores predict multiple student success factors, including college GPA, sophomore retention, and degree completion.
Opportunity Insights: Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges (Friedman, Sacerdote, Tine)
Even among otherwise similar students with the same high school grades, we find that SAT® and ACT® scores have substantial predictive power for academic success in college.
Opportunity Insights: Standardized Test Scores and Academic Performance at Ivy-Plus Colleges (Friedman, Sacerdote, Tine)
Students need to find their best-fit post-high school destination, whether a community college, university, military, or trade school. Research demonstrates that preparing for and taking the SAT® Test and/or ACT® Test helps reveal proper course placement and future academic success.
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Patty Novicki | Principal Elkhorn Valley High School, NE
"Results from AQuESTT data in 22-23 showcase that two out of three juniors at Cozad Community Schools did not meet minimum proficiency on the ACT (66.36%). Two short years later, the trend is reversed, and nearly two out of three juniors meet the proficiency threshold (down to 37.00% not meeting it).
Minimum proficiency is only part of this success story. The ACT Mean Composite score for juniors in 22-23 was 17.9; by 24-25, that number skyrocketed to 20.1.
While there are always variables to consider, the obvious change was the full implementation of OnToCollege and the ACT Test Prep Program through John Baylor. Indeed, Cozad is all about helping students find success on the ACT, and OnToCollege is our path forward!"
Dr. Dan Endorf | Superintendent Cozad Community Schools, NE
"For the past 10 years, Lakeview Schools has proudly partnered with John Baylor and OnToCollege to provide our students with exceptional ACT preparation.
Through the PreACT and ACT course work at our high school, we have seen consistent, measurable success. Students who fully engage in the OnToCollege program have never scored below a 20 on the ACT — a remarkable testament to the effectiveness of the curriculum and instruction.
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Scott Hanson | Principal Lakeview Public School, MN
